You can put up an avalanche of rhetorics about the past administration of Otunba Alao-Akala, but one fact remains sacrosanct - Oyo State flourished during Akala's heydays. The State witnessed equitable distributions of resources and monumental developments.
To people that could hear the unsaid words and read the invisible handwriting, you don't need a soothsayer to tell you that Otunba Alao-Akala in his bid for the second term in 2011 was a victim of organized political negotiations and regional power play in Nigeria.
In democratic politics, you can't win all, you give out before you take in, that explains the power plays between the almighty federal structure and the formidable regional cabals. In a nutshell, in 2011 general election, Goodluck Jonathan as the then President gave something to take something.
The 2015 election was another epochmaking game entirely, the change tsunami swept the major fragment of the nation, that explains the obvious reason why Ajimobi broke the second term jinx.
Ajimobi was a record-breaker; he successfully ruled Oyo State for 8 years. What an unprecedented record but with little to show for it! Today's question begging for answer is that, will Ajimobi succeed in ruling for 12 years? This question explains that obvious notion that Adelabu Penkelemesi is a known protege to Ajimobi brought outside the circle of politics. If he wins, that simply means Ajimobi tenure is extended for another 4 years, who knows whether it would reach 8 years? (GOD FORBID PECULIAR MESS AGAIN IN OYO STATE).
Although, as a political scientist, my intellectual escapade and political calculation gave me some salient messages that are yet shocking, unexpectedly, Otunba Alao Akala's chance in the next gubernatorial election is brightened.
First of all, it is worthy to note that Oyo State has 5 zones, namely: Ibadan Zone, Oke Ogun Zone, Ibarapa Zone, Ogbomoso Zone and Oyo Zone. Also, we have 5 major contenders on the platforms of ADC, ADP, APC, PDP and ZLP. Alao Akala of ADP is the only candidate that can boastfully say that he would win his zone with wide margin; like it or hate it.
ADC, APC, PDP and ZLP picked their respective governorship candidates from Ibadan, that simply means Ibadan votes will be shared among all Candidates especially those from Ibadan. In Ibadan, Akala's candidature is never a write-off one; in fact, some parts of Ibadan are yearning for Alao-Akala popularly known as Alanu Mekunnu. No matter the intricacies, Akala still has some percentages of votes in Ibadan.
In Oke Ogun, while APC and PDP gave their Senatorial tickets to Ogbomoso, Akala's ADP gave it's senatorial ticket to an Oke Ogun son at a time that the people of the zone are clamouring for Oke-Ogun agenda. The move has simply increased the overwhelming love and support the people of Oke-Ogun have for Alao-Akala. He will simply win the largest percentage of the votes from the zone, coupled with the development marginalization the zone has so far experienced under the ever-biased APC govt.
Although, the present permutation places ADP and PDP candidates in 50/50 advantages in Ibarapa zone, Alao-Akala does not need the largest percentage of votes from the zone to emerge as overall winner, but it remains evidently that regardless of who comes first from Ibarapa Zone, Alao Akala has welded enough prominence to come second.
Oyo Zone remains another ground of battle for all, no one can say precisely who has enough capacity to win the zone, but it is sacrosanct that none of the candidates would be less rated from the zone, ADP, ADC, APC and PDP will fiercely fight for votes in the zone with.
Anyone with discerning and deciphering spirit could easily flow in line with my hypothesis. Regardless of the existing grandiloquence from different quarters, Otunba Alao-Akala could take everyone by surprise and return to fulfill the prophesy.
As the game is toughened, permutations are thickened, money is speaking, influence is making waves, but in the end, the interest of the people would take the lead.
**********
Ogunwoye Samson Gbemiga (Ogunsamson) wrote from Iresapupa, Oyo State.
Edited by: YSO Olaniyi
EmoticonEmoticon